The European Union’s (EU) attitude towards the Abraham Accords blends reluctance and indifference — largely because they are seen exclusively as a US, Trump-era achievement. Yet the EU has not really understood the impact of these era-defining Accords. Those that have experienced them bear witnesses to a new, more cooperative, structure of the Middle East. The Accords represent a crucial step forward in terms of both enhanced security and regional prosperity. They are innovative in terms of tying trade to politics and show a new, constructive, way to bring about peace. If the EU was less aloof to the Abraham Accords, it would realise that it could contribute to the peaceful resolution of the Israel-Palestine conflict as well. It almost seems that the EU bases its decisions on outdated narratives that do not truly consider peace as the main objective while refusing to admit — at least publicly — that they benefit from flux in the Middle East.
Often the EU, and many of its members, suggest that the Accords fail in their purpose of building a lasting peace in the Middle East since they are not geared towards a final deal to end the conflict or offer solutions to the main aspects of Palestinian interests such as: ending the practise of Israeli settlement construction, finding an adequate compensation package for those displaced in 1948 and 1967 and the final status of Jerusalem.
However, it seems that the EU is simply dragging its feet. The Abraham Agreements are, in fact, an instrument of peace but they must also be seen as part of a longer process that brings important Arab states into the peace process. This produces the opportunity to press Israel and Palestine to fulfil their obligations to each other in ways that the US and/or the EU cannot do alone. So, while the EU has come to view the Accords as an American political device, they are actually a way to expand the parties engaged in the peace process. In other words, no one owns peace in the Middle East; it is a public good. And, of course, the Abraham Accords took place in a context without EU representation or insights. Brussels was too busy negotiating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran and, apparently, lacked a large enough pool of Middle East experts to tackle two agendas at the same time. So there is a certain bitterness at having no real role in the development of the peace process that led to the Abraham Accords.
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Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine (24 February 2022) and the subsequent impingement on EU energy security the Union has finally begun to reevaluate the Abraham Agreements and it is now commonplace, in the corridors of EU power, to hear the word ‘triangulation’ where the EU joins the US and the Middle East states in trade ventures and political exchanges. It may now be time to talk about the emergence of a new geopolitical system based on ‘mini-lateralism,’ as opposed to multilateralism. This is because it is advantageous to construct regional alliances — in the Middle East and the world over — among like-minded states rather than constantly trying to find lowest common denominators. This is especially required in order to construct and maintain a unified containment strategy against common challenges. It is precisely in such a context that new collaborative arrangements can emerge and be strengthened. And, it is precisely here that that EU can try to work together with its Middle Eastern allies — on areas that all can agree with. Making the Abraham Accords work and deliver peace to Palestinians and Israelis is one such area.