The tools of conflict are keeping pace with the technological prowess of our times. No sooner does a new technology enter the public domain (and often even before) and it is weaponised. This is increasingly true with cybersecurity technologies and Artificial Intelligence (AI). While this is a global phenomenon, this work limits itself to the Middle East since it represents an important theatre for cyber operations. This is due to three main reasons, each linked to specific cyber threats.

First, the region is a complex geopolitical space—driven with tensions that are no longer confined to physical territory but have also migrated to cyberspace, which has emerged as the fifth domain of military operations and is also intricately embedded into all other domains. Effective operations across land, sea, air, and space now heavily depend on cyber capabilities. Consider the Gaza conflict, which exhibits characteristics of a hybrid war, blending various strategies and tactics across different domains to achieve strategic objectives. Since the beginning of hostilities, approximately 120 hacker groups have emerged to support one or the other party, with a notable majority backing Hamas – 120 versus 20.(1) Further complicating the situation, some four neutral groups, some affiliated with the ‘Anonymous’ collective, engage in the conflict without aligning with either side.

Second, in recent years, the Middle East saw a surge in digitalisation, with many countries in the region embarking on ambitious projects for technological advancement. Initiatives like Saudi Vision 2030 focus on economic diversification and reducing oil dependency through technological innovation. The UAE’s Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence leads in AI research and education. Additionally, advancements in e-commerce in Kuwait and the adoption of biometric payments highlights the region’s swift embrace of digital solutions. For instance, Kuwait’s government has been proactive in implementing e-government projects, which include digitalizing documents, integrating electronic signatures, and enhancing data management systems. Moreover, several new e-payment solutions providers have emerged in the region, further illustrating the dynamic digital landscape. This technology sprint, accelerated by the pandemic, has not only advanced digital transformation but has also broadened the attack surface, heightening vulnerabilities across national critical infrastructures and civilians more generally.

Third, the region’s diverse religious and cultural landscape fosters unique social movements, which are often mirrored in cyberspace. This cultural dynamism can fuel cyber activities ranging from activism to misinformation campaigns, further complicating cybersecurity challenges. Together, these factors — whether considered individually or in conjunction — shape the intricate cyber threat landscape in the Middle East.

In general, the Middle East’s threat landscape has long been characterised by nation-state or state-sponsored cyber operations, often in the form of Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs), serving the interests of various countries like Iran, China, and Russia. The APTs often represents a threat posed by an adversary with sophisticated levels of expertise and significant resources. These adversaries are often capable of using multiple attack vectors to generate opportunities to achieve its goals on a large scale and for extended periods of time; they adapt to a defender’s efforts to resist it, and with determination to maintain the level of interaction needed to execute its objectives. Alongside nation-state actors, organised criminal groups have seized the opportunity to exploit vulnerabilities linked to the expanded attack surface for financial gain, using ransomware attacks and data exfiltration to turn a profit by selling stolen information on the Dark Web.

Furthermore, a consistent trend has been observed in the rise of hacktivism, a fusion of hacking and activism, where hacking techniques are employed for political or social purposes. These actors engage in a range of disruptive activities, from massive Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) – malicious attempt to disrupt the normal traffic of a targeted server, service, or network by overwhelming it with a flood of internet traffic -to website defacement and disinformation campaigns, with many actions shaped by the ongoing conflicts within and outside the region. Three stand out:

Russia —  poses a significant threat in the region as it actively engages in cyber-attacks for espionage, financial gain and disinformation purposes. With the rise of technological advancements and digital progress, social media platforms have gained importance for political engagement. Russia has adeptly seized upon these developments to spread its disinformation campaigns with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine further intensified Russia’s efforts to influence public opinion.

Iran — too is a significant cyber warrior and supplements conventional cyberattacks with cyber-enabled influence operations (IO). These operations, deployed by Iran since june 2022, combine offensive computer network operations with messaging and amplification in a coordinated and manipulative fashion to shift perceptions, behaviours, or decisions by target audiences. The objectives of these operations align with Tehran’s broader strategy to advance its geopolitical interests through cyberspace manipulation. Specifically, Iran’s IO efforts focus on supporting Palestinian resistance, inciting unrest in Bahrain, and countering the normalization of Arab-Israeli relations. Iran IO operations primarily target Israel but also extend to influential Iranian opposition figures and groups, as well as Gulf states viewed as adversaries, reflecting a concerted effort to reshape regional dynamics in favor of Tehran’s strategic goals. Finally, China—poses another significant threat in relation to cyber espionage; leveraging its capabilities to conduct extensive cyber intrusions targeting strategic information across industrial, military, and political sectors. The primary objective of Chinese cyber espionage is to gain a competitive advantage for Chinese businesses: rapid technological advancements and the influx of investment in the region have made the Middle Eastern countries appealing targets for Chinese cyber operations.
The escalating dynamics of cyberwarfare, characterised by disruptive cyber-attacks targeting Middle Eastern entities, have raised the necessity of fortifying security networks. Against this backdrop, the United States emerges as an indispensable ally, a sentiment underscored during the meeting held in July 2022 between US President Biden and leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members. This meeting coincided with the Jeddah Security and Development Summit, a historic gathering that marked the first summit of its kind among the heads of state of the Council’s six member countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, hosted in the Saudi city of its namesake.

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The rapid advancement of technology in the Middle East, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), often outpaces the development of corresponding cybersecurity measures. Addressing cyber security challenges requires a multi-dimensional strategy, particularly as many companies and startups grapple with budget constraints that hinder their ability to staff adequate cyber security roles and deploy critical security solutions. Moreover, the shortage of cyber security expertise in the domestic local workforce remains a point of attention in some countries in the Middle East, thus reliant on foreign cyber security professionals. Overcoming these challenges requires increased funding, enhanced collaboration between the public and private sector, strategic policy implementation and mandates to cyber security bodies, and a concerted effort to develop and harness cyber security expertise effectively.