The Russia-Ukraine war is, apparently, winding down. Over the past weeks, President Donald Trump has expressed his willingness to support a peace agreement while also indicating that US military support to Ukraine is over. President Zelensky has weighed the gravity of this situation by stating that “without US military support it would be very difficult to survive”.(1) Even if the Ukrainian government is demanding security guarantees, and an agreement which fully satisfies all the parts is not around the corner, we are entering a new phase of this crisis.

With the eruption of the war, sanctions were introduced by Washington and its European allies against Russia. Each sanctions package had a huge impact on Western economies, many of them strongly dependent on Russian Gas supplies (re: Italy and Germany import respectively 35% and 55% of their gas from Russia).(2-3) As the conflict comes to an end, the idea of lifting the sanctions may circulate again. The economic implications would affect not only Western countries, but the global economy as a whole, especially if we consider that EU governments have sought new energy suppliers since the start of the war.

The countries that would see the most pronounced effects on their economies would be the main hydrocarbons’ exporters and importers. Russia is home to the largest gas reserves in the World, and in 2022 it was the second-highest dry natural gas producer and exporter, the third-highest crude oil and condensate producer and the third-highest coal exporter.(4) Western sanctions impressively shaped the role of Russian gas in the energy supply for Europe, as demonstrated by the rate of imports from Russia which accounted for 74% of gas imports in 2000, while, in 2025, just 25%. As data suggest, Europe found new gas suppliers in countries rich in reserves, including the US, Azerbaijan, Qatar, Algeria. Also Moscow successfully managed to find new importers, including China, India and Turkey.

Given the importance of Russian reserves in global energy supplies, a lift of sanctions would increase the amount of fuels circulating, thus decreasing the price of gas and oil. European economies would probably benefit from such a scenario, given its independence from hydrocarbon imports. Moscow would have the possibility to expand its exports to Europe and so to increase its gas revenues, which dropped by 24% one year after the start of the conflict in its state budget.(5) On the other side, main oil and gas producers, including the US, Middle East countries, and Brazil (etc), may face a decrease in their revenues given the fall in price. One of the reasons why the Russian economy actually survived against the expectations is that Moscow deepened its economic ties with other countries, like China and India,(6) which after the imposition of the sanctions have benefited from the purchase of Russian exports at lower prices.(7) As the demand for Moscow’s supplies increases, it is likely that this advantage will vanish. Other, non-energy sectors, like the trade of nickel and wheat, will probably be impacted in similar ways.

Given these effects, a lift on the sanctions on Russia is still unlikely. Even though President Trump is establishing a good relationship with Vladimir Putin, the White House is very cautious on the sanctions’s issue. A Presidential document released on 28 February stated the sanctions imposed on Moscow due to the invasion of Ukraine must continue in effect beyond 06 March 6.(8) Then, European countries are currently demonstrating a more hostile attitude towards Russia, and some of their leaders are also hypothesising to use the Russian frozen assets (two thirds of them are located in Europe) for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.(9-10)

It is unlikely that the European governments will lift sanctions anytime soon, but even if they do, there is only an outside chance that trade levels with Russia will return to a pre-war situation. In fact, since February 2023 the European governments and companies have strengthened their collaboration with other energy suppliers, including the GCC and Northern African countries, usually via long-term contracts.(11) So, the war in Ukraine has shaped the global economy, and the lifting of sanctions on Russia, which is not around the corner, will not return us to a pre-war situation—the war has hardened stances and dealt a blow to the free trade culture that gripped the EU before.