Arab American voter sentiment in the 2024 US Elections
By Piercamillo Falasca
Recent surveys reveal significant shifts in the political preferences of Arab American voters in four key states: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. The polling data, collected by the Arab American Institute (AAI) indicates a notable decline in support for President Joe Biden compared to the 2020 election, alongside rising uncertainty and dissatisfaction among voters.(1) In 2020, Biden secured nearly 60% of the Arab American vote. However, the 2024 poll shows a dramatic drop, with only 18% of Arab American voters currently favouring him. Former President Donald Trump maintains the support of about one-third of Arab American voters, consistent with his performance four years ago. This shift is accompanied by a significant increase in undecided voters and those leaning towards third-party candidates, rising to 50% from less than 10% in 2020.
Biden’s approval rating, among Arab Americans, plummeted, with 79% viewing him unfavourably. This is largely driven by disapproval among Democrats, with 56% expressing an unfavourable view. Trump’s disapproval rating is also high at 56%, but he retains strong support among Republican Arab Americans, which bolsters his overall standing.
The ongoing Gaza conflict is a critical issue for Arab American voters, significantly influencing their political preferences. The poll highlights that 60% of Arab Americans consider the Gaza war the most important issue determining their vote. President Biden’s handling of the conflict has been overwhelmingly disapproved, with 88% of respondents rating his performance negatively. This disapproval spans across party lines, indicating widespread dissatisfaction with Biden’s approach.
If Biden were to demand an immediate ceasefire and ensure unimpeded humanitarian aid into Gaza, 60% of Arab Americans indicated they would be more likely to support him, including 80% of Democrats and 82% of currently undecided voters. Similarly, if Biden suspends diplomatic and military support to Israel until a ceasefire is achieved, he could see a significant boost in his Arab voter share.
Voter enthusiasm among Arab Americans for the upcoming election is notably low. The poll reveals that 60% are not enthusiastic about casting their vote in November. This lack of enthusiasm is particularly pronounced among Democrats, with 73% expressing low enthusiasm, compared to 67% of Republicans who are enthusiastic about voting. Younger voters and immigrants show the lowest levels of support and enthusiasm for Biden. Party identification among Arab Americans has seen some changes since previous polls. Democratic identification has rebounded slightly to 32%, while Republicans are at 30%, and Independents at 22%. This marks a slight recovery for Democrats but still reflects a significant shift from the two-to-one margins they enjoyed from 2008 to 2016.
In Michigan, Trump has been actively engaging with the Arab American community, leveraging the support of Lebanese businessman Massad Boulos, who has close ties to the Trump family through his son Michael’s marriage to Tiffany Trump. This outreach aims to capitalise on the dissatisfaction with Biden’s policies towards Gaza. However, Trump’s previous policies and rhetoric towards Muslims and Arabs, including the travel ban, present significant challenges in gaining widespread support within this community.
The implications of these findings are significant as polls suggests that Biden’s current policies, especially regarding the Gaza conflict, risk alienating a crucial voter base in key swing states. If Kamala Harris (who replaced Biden as the Democrat’s candidate) can address these concerns effectively, she could potentially recover significant support. Otherwise, the lack of enthusiasm and rising third-party interest may impact the Democrat’s performance adversely in these states.
Qatar: Enhancing Food Security in the Gulf
By Daniela Palumbo
The 46th meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Standing Committee on Livestock, chaired by Qatar, was a crucial moment for the improvement of livestock and veterinary care in the Gulf as it highlighted the GCC’s unified commitment to tackling the critical issues of livestock management, veterinary medicine and epidemic disease control, with the aim of strengthening the sector that is vital to their agricultural and economic landscapes. Despite the importance of the economic side, it is even more important to consider the health sector and how it could be positively impacted by such changes. Recognising the fundamental role of livestock, the committee explored strategies to improve animal health and productivity through innovative husbandry practices, higher nutritional standards and better living conditions for livestock.
The advancement of veterinary drugs and vaccines was another crucial topic. The committee recognised the urgent need for advanced veterinary medicines to protect the health of animals and consequently, that of consumers. For this reason, a new position is being taken on research and development that now aims to produce vaccines customised to the region’s specific needs, ensuring a more effective defence against disease. These advances are essential to maintain a stable and productive livestock industry, which in turn supports food security and economic growth. The unification of regulations must, however, first be realised. This process could dramatically streamline trade and improve the availability of veterinary products, also benefiting farmers and small livestock owners.
Given the unique climatic and geographical challenges GCC members face, there are particularities to consider such as the susceptibility to outbreaks of animal diseases that can have a serious impact on livestock populations and, consequently, on food security. After Covid-19, the committee felt the need to make significant changes in relation to the establishment of new regional surveillance systems and rapid response protocols in case of other outbreaks. The outcomes of this meeting reflects a proactive and forward-looking approach, indicating a united vision for the future of animal affairs in the Gulf region.
Understanding Socio-Developmental Progress in Musandam, Oman
By Daniela Palumbo
The recent Comprehensive Development Pact by the Governorate of Musandam is a historic initiative to significantly improve the quality of life of its residents and underlines the commitment to sustainable growth in sensitive sectors, marking the beginning of an era of transformation for the region. At the core of this initiative is the enhancement of healthcare services, which includes the distribution of multi-purpose medical devices. This investment in medical technology is set to revolutionise healthcare in Musandam.
The agreement also provides full support to people with disabilities. This accord aims to provide the necessary resources and assistance to ensure that this vulnerable group can lead a dignified and fulfilling life. In this way, a strong commitment to social equity and inclusiveness is prioritised —ensuring that all residents benefit.
The focus on education creates projects that aim to upgrade school infrastructure, providing modern facilities and resources to enhance learning experiences. These new skills are necessary for the personal and professional growth of the country’s youth.
The promotion of sports is also been placed among the core points of the pact, because this emphasis on physical well-being and community cohesion reflects a broader approach aimed at improving the overall quality of life in Musandam.
Overall, the Musandam Governorate Comprehensive Development Pact represents a clear vision of regional development, which will certainly play an active role in creating a prosperous, inclusive and sustainable future for all in the Governorate.
(31/07/2024)