In recent decades, the EU has oscillated between legal principles and political pragmatism in its handling of the Palestinian dossier. Despite its declared support for the two-state solution and its role as the largest donor to the Palestinian Authority (PA), Brussels has often lacked a coherent and unified strategy. However, the evolving geopolitical landscape and the decision of some EU member states to recognise the State of Palestine could push the Union toward a more proactive role in the region. The extent to which the EU can exert influence in Gaza and the Palestinian territories will depend on its ability to combine diplomatic leverage, economic tools, and a more effective coordination with regional and global actors. From this perspective, the Union’s deepening engagement with the Gulf Cooperation Council—on issues ranging from human rights to trade and climate change—should not be overlooked.
Since the 1993 Oslo Accords, the EU has positioned itself as a promoter of a negotiated settlement between Israel and Palestine. However, its stance has always relied on a delicate balance: supporting Palestinian self-determination while maintaining strong ties with Israel. The absence of a unified EU voice on this issue has led to unilateral initiatives by certain member states, deepening divisions within the European Council. Countries such as Ireland, Spain, Sweden, and have recognized the State of Palestine, while others, including France, Germany, and Italy, remain more “cautious.”
These internal different approaches have weakened the EU’s geopolitical weight, paving the way for US diplomacy and the interventions of regional actors such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. The first Trump Administration reinforced this trend by excluding Brussels from key Middle East discussions and unilaterally recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Additionally, the so-called “Deal of the Century”, promoted in 2020 by Washington, disregarded Palestinian interests, further isolating the Palestinian Authority and narrowing the EU’s room for manoeuvre in the region.
Despite these challenges, the EU has remained a consistent financial supporter of Gaza’s reconstruction. However, the Israeli blockade and tensions between Hamas and Fatah have significantly undermined the impact of these efforts. More recently, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has prompted several EU member states to reconsider their aid policies and their regional engagement, further polarising positions that, before October 7, were more nuanced and open to dialogue.
The return of President Trump and a new US administration presents Brussels with an opportunity to assert its global autonomy and enhance its influence over the Palestinian question. However, the risk of a fragmented foreign policy among EU member states remains the primary obstacle to a cohesive strategy. To be effective, the EU must strengthen its internal coordination, tie its economic aid to tangible progress in the peace process, and establish a more structured dialogue with emerging regional leaders—as it has been attempting, albeit inconsistently, with post-Assad Syria.
How, What, When?
Given the current geopolitical landscape, the EU could adopt a more decisive role through three main avenues. First, it should push for a unified stance on the international recognition of the State of Palestine, thereby reviving negotiations with Israel. Second, a greater involvement in Palestinian security and governance could help stabilise Gaza, mitigate internal tensions, and strengthen local institutions. Finally, a more assertive diplomacy, coupled with a conditional aid policy, could incentivise both Israel and Palestine to pursue new compromises.
The EU’s future role in Palestine will ultimately depend on its ability to overcome internal divisions and assert itself as an autonomous geopolitical actor. If it succeeds in reinforcing strategic coherence and acting with greater decisiveness, the Union could evolve from being merely a financial backer to an active protagonist in the Middle East peace process. The key challenge will be to balance the diverging interests of member states while ensuring a coordinated approach, preventing the Palestinian question from being overshadowed by other global priorities.
Finally, in the medium term, the EU could play a pivotal role not only in humanitarian aid management but also in redefining the diplomatic architecture of the region—one that reflects shifting regional dynamics and addresses the needs of the Palestinian population. If it manages to do so, the EU could not only enhance its global credibility but also contribute to greater stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions.