In ‘The New Battle for the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Clash of Visions,’ [vol. 103:6, Foreign Affairs], Karim Sadjadpour analyses the defining cleavage in the contemporary Middle East. This cleavage, Sadjadpour asserts, is no longer rooted in traditional sectarian or ethnic distinctions, such as Sunni versus Shia or Arabs and Persians, but rather in a clash between modernisation and preservation, social liberalisation and repression. Saudi Arabia and Iran’s strategic visions represent this ideological divide, while their leaders, Mohammed bin Salman and Ali Khamenei, personify it. Sadjadpour supports the notion of an ideological, rather than ethnic and sectarian, divide with reference to Sunni radical groups’ hostility towards predominantly Sunni Saudi Arabia and their willingness to work with predominately Shia Iran.

The article contrasts the diverging developments of the two countries, despite their shared characteristics as oil and gas giants, by comparing their strategic visions. Sadjadpour analyses the visions’ effects on economic and social development, the governments’ grasp on power, and their relations with the rest of the world. Finally, Sadjadpour concludes by addressing the challenges each country faces and exploring the implications of the success or failure of their respective visions.

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is an attempt to spur innovation, diversify the country’s economy, easing Islamic restrictions (such as opening up cinemas and encouraging women’s involvement in the workforce), and constructing a unique national identity. Sadjadpour assesses the results of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious plan to be mixed. While Saudi Arabia has experienced significant economic growth and rapid introduction of social freedoms, the attraction of foreign direct investment and promotion of economic growth outside of the oil and gas sector have, according to him, only seen limited success.

Compared to Iran, however, Saudi Arabia is far ahead economically. While Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 promotes growth and integration with the world economy, Iran’s Vision 1979, as Sadjadpour calls it, is predicated upon preserving the revolution of 1979 and resisting Western influence. As a result, Iran struggles with a number of economics challenges, such as high inflation, brain drain, and crippled foreign currency reserves.

Strangely, this disparity is not reflected in the two leaders’ regional security competition and their grasp on power domestically. Across various Middle Eastern conflicts, Iran-backed proxies have prevailed against Saudi Arabia’s counter-efforts, as demonstrated by the failed attempts to route the Houthis in Yemen. In terms of regime survival, Sadjadpour also provides a reality check for those envisioning the imminent collapse of the theocracy in Iran. While the country has faced three major uprisings in the past 15 years, the regime retains tight control over the security forces and has successfully dismantled independent power centres. To support this view, Sadjadpour references revolutionary theory, which suggests that change—by empowering new groups and alienating old ones—often paves the way for revolution.

Following this argument, challenges confront both Mohammed bin Salman and Ali Khamenei. Prince Mohammed faces challenges both from the liberal allies he has empowered, who may become dissatisfied with the pace of reform, and from the disempowered Islamists who, in Sadjadpour’s words, ‘are dormant but not dead.’ Sadjadpour emphasises the importance of the latter group. Moreover, much of Salman’s prestige is tied to projects such as NEOM, which may prove to be unproductive and costly.

In Sadjadpour’s view, the failures of both Vision 2030 and Vision 1979 would have wide-ranging consequences. A failure of Vision 1979 could lead to greater stability in the Middle East, alongside the reintegration of Iranian oil and gas into the global energy market, replacing Iran’s current dependence on exports to China. On the other hand, the failure of the Vision 2030 could result in Islamic extremists controlling vast energy resources with a negative impact on both regional stability and global prosperity.

*****

Sadjadpour’s work offers a concise overview of the political projects of the two most powerful leaders in the Middle East. Though clearly in favour the project of Mohammed bin Salman, the article is nuanced and includes errors and the possibility of judgement lapses. The argument is overall convincing and elegantly presented, supported by a well-chosen selection of key statistics, examples, and metaphors, allowing Sadjadpour’s analysis to remain easily accessible despite spanning economic, social, and geopolitical issues in a short format.

One of the most important added values of the article is to remind readers of the persistent unpredictability of the Middle East as a region and the difficulty of successfully forecasting its developments. The only prediction Sadjadpour dares to make is that these developments will have a significant regional and global impact, no matter which direction they may go.