Abstract—Iran is entering a turbulent time and although it is working to patch-up and develop relations with the countries of the GCC, this may not be enough to stop the country from imploding much like the Shah’s Iran or the USSR. This analysis reflects on the element of surprise in regional politics.
Keywords—Iran, GCC, surprise, security, civil war
Of their many laugh-at-the-world moments, Monty Python’s sketch on the Spanish Inquisition stands out as, perhaps, the most relevant for reflecting on socio-political dynamics in the wider Middle East. When Cardinal Ximinez pronounces that ‘Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!’ he was suggesting that the element of surprise — as well as, in his case, fear and efficiency and an almost ‘fanatical devotion to the Pope’ — is part and parcel of world defining events. The element of surprise may be window dressed in more official language, such as black swan events, but the essence is the same.
It has always been a bit of a curiosity that decision-makers, experts and the wider international public rarely anticipate change until it has already happened. Khomeinist revolutionaries captured the US Embassy in 1979 and held its staff hostage for 444 days—yet few saw it coming. The Berlin Wall fell and the USSR imploded and experts in the US and Europe were befuddled. The 9/11 attacks, as heinous as they were, could have been anticipated and resilience hardened—but it too shows a clear lack of imagination among decision-makers and their advisors. Fast forward to 2024 and the international community, inundated with crises, continues to be shocked at unfolding changes—many remain unprepared. Russia-Ukraine, Georgia, Bosnia, Moldova, Israel-Palestine, Israel-Lebanon, Turkey-Kurds, Syria’s internal dynamics, Azerbaijan-Armenia (etc): all of these are predictable and yet shock and fear accompany the outbreak of hostilities as though they were new crisis-spots. Surprise is not about events themselves but rather that they are actually happening and not merely sitting in the abstract.
The same could be said of modern-day Iran, which has constructed an assortment of safety nets to preserve the regime but most of these have come at the cost of modernisation and economic development. Instead of investing in human capital, the country has spent untold billions in its security architecture both within the country and via proxies dotted around the region. But this investment is no guarantee that the regime will survive. As time passes more and more Iranian people see the widespread mismanagement of the country’s natural resources and wealth and are being mobilised for change. Of course there is no such thing as a tarot reading about a regimes’ survivability but history books can impart lessons.
In Iran, the ‘what next’ scenario is hardly a mystery. Without serious reform there will be revolution. Too much money has been corrupted away or gone to entities in Yemen, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Cuba and even to Russia. This strategy is not garnishing Iran with true allies but is producing blowback and isolation from would-be collaborators such as the European Union (EU). Intrigues, assassinations, tit-for-tat violence with Israel, pressure from the US and EU, wild capital punishment numbers, repression of women (etc) all equate to an Iran which is woefully behind both its allies and enemies and which is rapidly losing the trust of its citizens. What may trigger change remains elusive — the death of the Ayatollah, another costly war, more broad day killings of protesters or simply people reaching the end of their tether — but the status quo is unsustainable.
The latest round of Iranian Summitry to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members is an attempt to deescalate another tension region on its frontiers and to signal that Iran can be a partner for peace and is willing to reduce tensions to achieve regional stability. While the GCC welcomes this push from Tehran they have moved lightyears ahead—their pace of development is warp speed. Iran cannot hope to catch up with its current policies. At best, it can stave-off revolution but not indefinitely. At worst, it may be plunged into severe civil war — Syria style — as the US, Russia, Turkey, and others, pile-on into the chaos. Of course, there should be no confusion, the GCC countries do not want to see major disruption in Iran because chaos is contagious and spillover is highly possible. But change will not likely come from outside; it will be as organic as the 1979 revolution was.
The USSR came tumbling down after 69 years (1922-1991) and the GDR after 41 (1948-1989). As Iran heads to its 46th anniversary, it is legitimate to ask how long will it last? Will it learn from history and adjust itself to reflect the interests of its people and the wider region? Or will it neglect the element of surprise that often accompanies international events? In short, Iran stands at a crossroads.