The race for artificial intelligence (AI) is usually described as a competition over semiconductors, algorithms, and computing power. Yet beneath these technological systems lies a more fundamental constraint: energy. AI is an energy intensive technology, at least in the near future. Countries capable of securing abundant, reliable, and affordable energy will hold a decisive advantage in the technological competition that will shape the twenty-first century.
The scale of the coming energy challenge is already visible in the United States. After nearly two decades of relatively stagnant electricity consumption, the country is entering a period of rapid growth in power demand driven largely by AI and digital infrastructure. By 2030, US electricity consumption is projected to rise by roughly 20%. Some analysts estimate that the increase could reach more than 50% within the next 15 years, marking one of the most significant expansions of electricity demand in modern US economic history.
AI is the principal driver of this surge. Training advanced AI models, processing vast datasets, and operating large digital platforms require extraordinary computational capacity. That computation is concentrated in massive data centres operating continuously at industrial scale. Analysts estimate that AI data centres could account for nearly half of electricity demand growth in the United States through the end of this decade. In practical terms, electricity consumption from these facilities alone is expected to double or even triple within just a few years.
The scale of the infrastructure involved illustrates the magnitude of the challenge. A single modern AI data centre can consume as much electricity as roughly 100,000 homes. Across the US, large technology companies are building these installations at unprecedented speed in order to secure the computing infrastructure required for artificial intelligence applications. The AI revolution therefore depends not only on software innovation, but also on the physical capacity of power systems to sustain continuous and large-scale digital computation.
This dynamic reflects a broader economic principle. Throughout modern history, technological leadership has always depended on access to abundant energy. The industrial revolution was powered by coal. The twentieth century economy was built on oil and electricity. The emerging AI economy will depend on vast and reliable energy systems capable of sustaining an uninterrupted digital infrastructure. In practical terms, there has never been a wealthy and technologically advanced country with limited access to energy.
Energy demand is also shaped by geopolitical realities. Rising international tensions and military conflicts increase energy consumption while simultaneously exposing global supply chains to disruption. Strategic competition between major powers therefore magnifies the importance of energy security. Without abundant and reliable sources of energy, a country’s economic capacity, technological leadership, and military strength are inevitably constrained.
For the US, this creates a clear strategic imperative. Maintaining leadership in the artificial intelligence era requires securing stable and abundant energy supplies over the long term. This requirement brings renewed attention to the Western Hemisphere and to countries capable of supplying large quantities of energy to global markets. Among them, Venezuela stands out because of the scale of its natural resources and its potential to reemerge as a major energy producer.
Venezuela possesses the largest proven oil reserves in the world, exceeding those of Saudi Arabia. For decades this resource base made the country one of the most important energy producers in the Americas. Yet today Venezuela produces only a fraction of its historical capacity. Years of economic mismanagement, expropriations, price controls, and institutional collapse under authoritarian rule have devastated the Venezuelan oil sector and severely weakened the broader economy.
The result is one of the most dramatic cases of economic underutilisation in the modern world. A country that once produced more than three million barrels of oil per day now struggles to produce a third of that level. Despite this decline, Venezuela retains the potential to reemerge as a major energy supplier.
Domestic fuel consumption in the country is relatively limited, estimated at roughly 300,000 barrels of oil per day. Under stable political conditions and market friendly economic policies, Venezuela could plausibly expand production to several million barrels per day within the next decade. Such an expansion would significantly increase global energy supply while strengthening energy security across the Western Hemisphere.
Venezuela’s strategic potential extends beyond hydrocarbons. The country possesses one of the largest hydroelectric systems in Latin America, with installed capacity exceeding 16,000 megawatts. Hydropower has historically supplied a large share of the country’s electricity and provides a renewable foundation for industrial development. In addition, Venezuela holds substantial deposits of iron ore, bauxite, gold, and other minerals that support energy intensive industries such as steel, aluminium, and mining.
Taken together, these resources provide the foundation for a diversified energy and industrial economy. Few countries combine vast hydrocarbon reserves, large hydroelectric capacity, and significant mineral wealth within the same territory. According to research from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Venezuela also possesses one of the largest gold endowments in the world, further reinforcing the country’s long term industrial potential.
For the US and its allies, this potential has clear strategic implications. As artificial intelligence drives unprecedented growth in electricity demand, reliable energy partnerships will become increasingly valuable. Countries capable of supplying large volumes of energy and industrial inputs will play a central role in shaping the economic architecture of the twenty-first century.
Another group of actors that should play a larger role in Venezuela’s transition are the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar possess both the financial resources and the technical experience required to develop large scale energy projects. Their sovereign wealth funds manage trillions of dollars in global assets, and in recent years Gulf investors have increasingly expanded their presence in Latin America across infrastructure, energy, and industrial sectors. Greater GCC engagement in Venezuela would therefore be beneficial for the economic development of both these countries and Venezuela.
A market friendly Venezuela could therefore become a key pillar of energy security in the Americas. By restoring property rights, reopening its energy sector to private investment, and reintegrating into global markets, Venezuela could dramatically expand production. Greater Venezuelan energy production would support industrial development across the hemisphere. In an era defined by artificial intelligence and geopolitical competition, energy abundance will shape the balance of AI. If Venezuela succeeds in restoring democratic governance and rebuilding market institutions, it could once again become one of the world’s major energy producers and a central pillar of economic stability and technological competitiveness across the Western Hemisphere.